Open-source model

The IPECAD Alzheimer’s disease model (Green et al, 2019) has been developed by the IPECAD Modelling Group as a framework to model disease progression across Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and to assess the costs and outcomes associated with the condition, and the cost-effectiveness of interventions for people affected by AD, using the scenario of a future disease modifying therapies (DMT) for people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD.

A description of the model (version 1.0) entitled “Assessing cost-effectiveness of early intervention in Alzheimer’s disease: An open-source modeling framework” is published open-access in the journal Alzheimer’s and Dementia: the journal of the Alzheimer’s Association (Alzheimers Dement 2019 Oct;15(10):1309-1321 doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2019.05.004 or PubMed).

You can use this open-source model for free under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International Public License.

We host a version history developed by the IPECAD Modelling Group below.

We provide a listing of self-reported external applications of the model below to endorse transparency.

External applications

Citations of Green et al. Alzheimers Dement. 2019 Oct;15(10):1309-1321:

2021 Aug 5: IPECAD open-source model was described in a cross-comparison to other models by ICER.

2020 October: Jun H, Cho SK, Aliyev ER, Mattke S, Suen SC. How Much Value Would a Treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease Offer? Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds for Pricing a Disease-Modifying Therapy. Curr Alzheimer Res. 2020 Dec 3. doi: 10.2174/1567205017666201203121907. PMID: 33272181


PLANNED: 2021 Nov 8: present IPECAD open-source model on ISPOR Open Source Models journal club.

2020 October (advisory): Bengt Winblad has provided general advise for Grifols International – AMBAR commercial Development who have requested the IPECAD model version 1.0.

2020 May-August (education): Ron Handels guided two master students who have applied the IPECAD model version 1.0 in their internship (Health, Policy and Management master’s program at Maastricht University).

2019 Oct (publication): publication on IPECAD open-sourcemodel 1.0 (Alzheimers Dement. 2019 Oct;15(10):1309-1321.

2019 Jul 1 (conference): oral presentation at AAIC conference on IPECAD open-source model. Colin Green, Ron Handels, Anders Gustavsson, Anders Wimo, Anders Skoldunger, Bengt Winblad, Linus Jonsson. O5-08-04: A NEW OPEN-SOURCE MODELING FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS COST EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY INTERVENTION IN ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE. First published: 01 July 2019.

2018 Feb 15 (conference): Colin green presented a first draft of the model on the IPECAD conference (8th edition).

2017 May 01 (funding): Ron Handels received support by the Dutch Alzheimer Association (Alzheimer Netherlands) for travel costs for meetings to discuss the IPECAD open-source model. Link:

2016 June 16: initial discussion on IPECAD open-source model.

Version history

Version 1.1

1 March 2021

This version was developed as part of the IPECAD modelling workshop challenge 2020 (see Alongside the Excel version a version was coded in R.


  1. Addition of input (functionality) on ‘Treatment Discontinuation (waning)’. For Excel version see sheet ‘Inputs’ cell ‘D11’ is 10% corresponding to text “Treatment discontinuation/waning (per year)”.
  2. Additional reporting by states / disease stages including use of ‘half-cylce correction’ [prior version 1.0 did not report results on disease progression using half-cycle correcction]. For Excel version see for example sheet “Usual Care COhort” cell ‘BV9’.
  3. Included reporting for results and CEA outputs over a 10-year time horizon. For Excel version see additional tables/reporting on sheets “Usual Care Cohort” and “Treatment Cohort” e.g. from cell ‘DJ19’, and also in sheet “Results” e.g. from cells ‘H11’ & ‘BJ49’.
  4. Includes additional reporting, on time (person years) in disease stages, with half-cycle correction; to facilitate reporting of trace by severity stage over time. For Excel version see for example in sheet “Outputs” cells ‘X2’ and ‘AW2’.

Bug fixes


Version 1.0

8 August 2019

Development group

left to right: Bengt Winblad, Colin Green, Ron Handels, Anders Wimo, Anders Sköldunger, Anders Gustavsson, Linus Jönsson

Anders Gustavsson (Quantify Research, Sweden; Karolinska Institutet, Sweden) (2016-now)

Colin Green (Biogen UK; University of Exeter, UK; Karolinska Institutet, Sweden) (2016-now)

Ron Handels (Maastricht University, Netherlands; Karolinska Institutet, Sweden) (2016-now)

Will Herring (RTI Health Solutions, U.S.) (2021-now)

Linus Jönsson (Karolinska Institutet, Sweden) (2016-now)

Anders Sköldunger (Karolinska Institutet, Sweden) (2016-now)

Anders Wimo (Karolinska Institutet, Sweden) (2016-now)

Bengt Winblad (Karolinska Institutet, Sweden) (2016-now)

Former member:

Andreas Karlson (Karolinska Institutet, Sweden) (2019-2020)

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