(see earlier workshops here)

IPECAD modeling workshop 4 – 2023



The following research question was set: What are differences in key health-economic outcomes across models that assess the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical disease-modifying AD drug treatment, and what factors explain those differences?

The focus of the workshop is on the challenges of using trial outcomes in a decision model. Specifically, we seek to investigate the use of outcomes from short-term detailed trial efficacy evidence and their translation to long-term patient-relevant outcomes in a decision analytic framework. Our goal is to describe treatment implementation methods and discuss how they translate into differences in health-economic model outcomes (taking into account the specific model design, parameterization and model assumptions).


  • March
    • Participants study the Benchmark Scenario document (see below) (starting age, sex, MCI due to AD diagnosis, memory clinic setting, treatment costs, treatment waning, U.S. mortality, utility and costs, and other details). They consider adjustments to their model such that it adheres to the Benchmark Scenario, without changing the fundamental design of the model. Supportive information for adhering to a U.S. setting can be found below.
    • Participants provide feedback to the Organizers in case of any questions or uncertainties regarding implementing the Benchmark Scenario into their model.
  • April
    • Participants implement the benchmark scenario into their model.
    • Participants share their model Outcomes in confidence with the Organizers in the pre-defined templates (see below) before 1 May 2023.
    • Virtual meeting on Thursday 13 April 2023 at 17.00h CET (08.00am Los Angeles). Goal: provide opportunity to ask questions and share any concerns. Open for participants and those interested in receiving an update.
  • May
    • Organizers will prepare a simple descriptive comparison of all submitted model’s Outcomes and will share this with all involved Participants in confidence.
    • Organizers will prepare a basic description of all models and will share this with all involved Participants for checking.
  • June
    • Workshop in-person meeting on Monday 5 and Tuesday 6 June 2023 (Stockholm, Sweden). Goal: Participants present their model, and discuss the cross-comparison results. Participation is only possible if a model is presented that reflects the Benchmark Scenario.
    • Workshop virtual meeting (tbd). Goal: same as in-person meeting for those not possible to join in person.
  • July-September
    • Participants are willing to share their model Outcomes as detailed in the Benchmark Scenario document for the Organizers to make them publicly available. Organizers aim to describe and discuss the results from the model cross-comparison in a scientific manuscript and submit it to an international peer-reviewed journal or conference for an oral/poster. Participants who met the conditions for participation qualify for authorship (max. 2 authors per modelling group).


Benchmark scenario:


Template 1: model outcomes

Template 2: description implementation benchmark scenario

Earlier communications

Instruction (~December 2022)

Dear modeling group,

Thank you once more for your interest in the IPECAD modeling workshop on cross-comparing health-economic models in the field of Alzheimer’s disease (AD).

Herewith we provide an instruction email for modeling groups to prepare for the cross-comparison, structured alongside a timeline towards the workshop meeting on 13 and 14 April 2023 in Stockholm (and virtual meeting to be planned around end of April 2023).

For those modeling groups who have indicated not able to contribute but expressed a wish to be updated, please consider this for your information.

Summary overview:
• December-January: you (i.e., participating modeling group) study/explore the benchmark scenario, consider whether your model is able to implement it, and provide feedback to the scenario (over email or teleconference). If necessary, the benchmark scenario can be updated (except for major changes).
• February-March: you implement the benchmark scenario, run the model and share the results in the pre-defined format. If necessary, you feedback/discuss any issues you encounter.
• April: face to face meeting on 13-14 April 2023 in Stockholm. Virtual meeting end of April (date to be determined).

Materials (attached):

  1. Summary instruction video (suggested start):
  2. Detailed instruction/planning and benchmark scenario (below).
  3. Synthetic individual patient-level data: do not further distribute (only via email).

In addition, please find interested modeling groups below, our previous cross-comparison publication here:, and a copy of all information on

We welcome your ideas or comments at this stage of the cross-comparison. In addition, please let us know if you are aware of any other modeling groups with a health-economic model starting in MCI (in addition to the model/modeling groups listed below).

Thank you in advance for your effort in this workshop. We look forward to your response.

With best regards,
IPECAD modeling workshop steering group
Prof. Colin Green – Biogen UK; University of Exeter, UK; Karolinska Institutet, Sweden
Dr. Anders Gustavsson – Karolinska Institutet, Sweden; Quantify Research, Sweden
Dr. Ron Handels – Karolinska Institutet, Sweden; Maastricht University, Netherlands
Will Herring – RTI Health Solutions, U.S.
Dr. Linus Jönsson – Karolinska Institutet
Dr. Anders Sköldunger – Karolinska Institutet, Sweden
Dr. Ashley Tate – Karolinska Institutet, Sweden
Prof. Anders Wimo – Karolinska Institutet, Sweden
Prof. Bengt Winblad – Karolinska Institutet, Sweden

Detailed instruction/planning and benchmark scenario:

[removed due to updated version]

Invitation (~October 2022)

Dear modeling group,

Thank you for your interest in the IPECAD modeling workshop on cross-comparing health-economic models in the field of Alzheimer’s disease (AD).
We have identified your model as potentially highly valuable for the workshop. Below we share the draft plan for the workshop and attached (see below) you find detailed information on the methods and benchmark scenario for the workshop.
Participation is conditional on being able to implement the benchmark scenario (starting population of AD-type MCI and model reflecting a U.S. setting), having sufficient time to run the scenario (around February-March), share the results with all modeling participants, and willing to share your results for publication. Please be aware it is not necessary to implement all details from the tables/graphs provided in the attached document; you are free to make a selection you consider relevant related to the benchmark scenario.
As IPECAD modeling workshop steering group we are engaged to support you along preparations and participation. If you have any questions or wish to receive advice we are happy to answer or discuss with you to prevent any delays and minimize the time investment for participating in this workshop.
May we please ask you to respond to this email by answering the following questions:

  1. Do you think you are able to adhere to the benchmark scenario (detailed below in terms of starting population, setting, DMT treatment effect, etc.)? [yes / no]
  2. Please indicate on a global level what changes you will likely make to fit the benchmark scenario (for example: “I will add an MCI state to the Markov model, and transition rate to dementia from literature, I will implement a U.S. life table and utility and cost estimates as provided by IPECAD group, I will implement a discontinuation rate”). [open question]
  3. Please send us any report, publication, documentation of your model (pdf or link). [open question / attachment]
  4. Are you able to attend the meeting on 13 and 14 April face to face in Europe (venue to be decided)? [yes / no / not sure]
  5. Do any other modeling groups come to mind we should consider approaching for this workshop? [no / yes, namely___]
    Thank you in advance for considering our invitation. We hope you are positive considering participating in this workshop.

Please let us know if you have any questions at this moment.
We look forward to your response.

[attached materials omitted as they have been updated above; materials included: draft timelines and draft detailed benchmark scenario (introduction, description of benchmark scenario, hypothetical trial outcomes, reporting tables)]

Announcement / save the date (~May 2022)

Save the date: 4th IPECAD Modeling Workshop – AD model cross comparison (13-14 April, 2023)

Dear sir/madam,

Save the date: IPECAD Modeling Workshop, 13-14 April, 2023, face-to-face meeting (followed by a virtual meeting for those who cannot attend the face-to-face meeting).
Location: on site in Europe, venue to be determined.

We are pleased to announce the 4th upcoming IPECAD modeling workshop on modeling methods aligned to the health policy context for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and related dementias.

The aim of this IPECAD 2023 modeling workshop is to improve the transparency and understanding of health economic models in the context of the effect of AD interventions. This will be accomplished by comparing predictions from a set of submitted models that have implemented the same disease-modifying AD drug trial outcomes. The workshop will include a discussion of differences across model results in relation to factors such as model design, parameterization, and model assumptions. Before the workshop takes place, a reference case benchmark scenario and a standardized output form will be developed by the organizing committee and shared for comments with all participants.

Let us know you are interested, leave your contact details: [link no longer active].

The specific focus of this 4th workshop edition is on the overall challenge of using trial outcomes in a decision model, and specifically of selecting outcomes from short-term detailed trial efficacy evidence and translating them to long-term patient-relevant outcomes in a decision analytic framework. For this, we will mimic the outcomes of a hypothetical DMT trial in terms of synthetic individual patient level as well as aggregated data on surrogate, symptom and biomarker outcomes over a 2-year time period both for a control (placebo) and intervention arm (hypothetical DMT) in an MCI due to AD population in a U.S. setting. This contrasts the previous cross-comparison workshop in 2020 where only a general efficacy statement was provided.

We plan to hold 2 meetings: a face-to-face meeting and subsequently a virtual meeting for those who cannot attend the face-to-face meeting. If you are interested or wish to be updated on this workshop, please indicate your interest using the link above. More information on the 4th workshop will follow.

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